這是非常激動人心的一年。臨近2022年底，仍有不少香港人移民英國。在過去的一年裡，Glenburn已經幫助 50 多個家庭移民愛丁堡和附近的城鎮。我們不止幫助客戶移民愛丁堡，並在當地的新建市場或二手市場以及市場租賃、購買。明年，英國和世界經濟將會發生什麼。因應通脹、戰爭和大流行造成的短缺給世界將帶來了變化？

進入 2023 年，最大的問題之一將是租屋。愛丁堡一直存在住房短缺問題，現在情況更差，因為肺炎後許多人返回城市，而學生人數亦不斷增加，而更多普通公寓亦變成 HMO（合法分租房）。英國利率的提高也使許多租客留在原地，而打算購買自己的房屋的念頭。根據 Rightmove 的數據，對出租房屋的需求增加了 20%；而在某些地區，供應量反之下降了10%，原因是政府正在考慮新的法規和未來可能的更高稅收，令不少業主退出市場。

過去一年，經我們處理的租屋客戶都動不動都可能與超過 50 名或以上的申請人競爭。我們知道並理解從海外租房的困難。因為你的申請可能只是其中之一，地產代理篩選一輪後很可能便會落選。可幸的是，因為我們與小型地產代理有著良好的關係，這些代理更了解我們客戶的需求和願望，使我們都能成功協助客戶租屋。另外，今年愛丁堡的租金亦上漲了 10-15% 左右，所以我們亦會建議客戶提出較索價稍高的出價。儘管一些客戶提出願意支付最多12 個月的租金，但蘇格蘭業主接受超過 6 個月的預付租金是違法的。

即使如此，我們仍然相信現在是香港人購買英國房地產的最佳時機。首先，自利率上升以來，房地產市場價格下跌。2 月份的利率為 0.5厘，但現在已為3厘，這使得借貸成本變得更加昂貴。 回想2 月和 3 月的房屋報價比報價往往高出 15-20%，現在已大幅回落至最高 5-10%，而Fixed price (到價即成)的數量增加了四倍 。在英國，絕大多數業主都申請按揭，然而，他們發現許多銀行和貸款機構由於經濟不確定性，而不再那麼願意提供按揭。對許多香港買家來說，現金全付的購買能力使他們處於有利地位。在接受賣方條件（通常是關於交吉日期和其他次要細節）之後，我們的客戶在競標二手市場房屋時每次都能成功。最重要的細節是當前的英鎊兌港元匯率。目前它的價格約為 9.5 港元至 1 英鎊，甚至有段時間低於 9.00 港元。低匯率加上較低的房價，讓2023年成為搬家的最佳時機。

隨著樓價下跌，Buy-to-let(投資放租)的查詢和客戶亦相應增加。最近我們便幫助客戶購買了三間房屋投資，並已立即出租。隨著樓價下跌，租金上升，回報率可達6%。我們建議香港買家趁此機會入手。愛丁堡一直以來都是英國最穩定和最具升值潛力的物業市場之一，購買物業絕對是你的資本增長和升值之選。

在過去的一年，我亦受英國港僑協會邀請舉辦或主講幾場講座和網上研討會。這些講座已得到英國政府地方發展房屋及社區部(Leveling Up Department)的支持，以提供香港人移民愛丁堡的資訊。首次網上研討會在4月舉行，會上談及物業租賃和銷售。 11 月，我在 Eric Liddell 中心分享了關於小生意創業，並在 12 月分享了蘇格蘭東北部各城市。

我們了解移民到另一個國家是多麼困難和疲憊，尤其是當你不確定如何。Glenburn由一群土生土長的專業人士成立。而愛丁堡團隊亦有 4 名香港人加入，他們在過去 18 個月內移民愛丁堡。他們不僅會協助租屋或購買物業，還會就有關健康、本地服務、政府和行政事務的事宜提供協助和建議。除此之外，我們還定期舉辦早會，讓新來的香港人可以見面、交流、尋求支持和結交新朋友。

請隨時與我們聯絡。

2022年12月

It has been a very exciting and eventful year at Glenburn. We are nearing the end of 2022 and Hong Kong people are still leaving for the UK in ever-larger numbers. In the past year Glenburn has helped over 50 families to relocate to Edinburgh and nearby towns. We have helped clients to rent, buy either in the new build market or secondary market and also in the BTL (Buy-to-Let) market. What will happen in 2023 and the UK and world economy as inflation, shortages caused by war and pandemic bring changes to the world we know?

Going into 2023 one of the biggest problems will be renting property. There has always been a housing shortage in Edinburgh and it is now worse as many people return to cities after the pandemic along with an ever-growing student population in which normal flats have been turned into HMO’s (Houses of Multiple Occupancy). The raising of interest rates has also made many renters stay put instead of buying their own property, so the demand for rented property has increased by as much as 20% according to Rightmove while supply has fallen as much as 10% in some areas due to landlords leaving the market as new regulations and possible future higher taxes are contemplated by government.

With upwards of 50 or more renters applying for each property, we at Glenburn know and understand the difficulties of renting from overseas where your email application is likely to be one of just so many that agents very quickly stop after the first half dozen. Glenburn has been highly successful in renting for our overseas clients as we have excellent working relationships with small independent letting agencies who better understand our clients’ needs and wishes. Rents have also increased by around 10-15% and we often encourage our clients to bid more than the stated rent in order to secure the property. Although some clients have offered to pay up to 12 months rent, it is illegal for a Scottish landlord to accept more than 6 months advance rent.

There is now no better time for HK people to buy a UK property. There are a multitude of reasons for this. First, the property market has seen price falls since interest rates went up. In February, interest rates were 0.50% but now stand at 3.00% making borrowing much more expensive. House offers which in February and March were running at somewhere between 15-20% over offer price have now fallen considerably to between 5-10% maximum while the number of fixed price sales has increased fourfold (x 4). As the vast majority of property buyers in the UK buy with mortgages, they have also found that many banks and lending institutions are no longer so willing to give mortgages due to the economic uncertainty. For many HK buyers the ability to buy without a mortgage puts them in an advantageous position. An offer followed by accepting the sellers conditions (usually about date of handover and other minor details) has seen Glenburn’s clients succeed every time when bidding for a secondary market property. The last but perhaps most important detail is the current £ to HK$ exchange rate. Currently it stands at around HK$9.5 to £1 and has been under HK$9.00. When I bought my first property in Scotland in 2003, the exchange rate was HK$13.80 and was HK$10.8 when I bought a second property in 2015. The current exchange rate along with lower property prices has made 2023 the perfect time to relocate.

In other news, as property prices have fallen so the number of BTL clients have increased and recently Glenburn has helped clients buy three BTL’s which have been rented out immediately due to rental shortages. With falling property prices but increased demand for rentals giving yields of up to 6%, we advise HK buyers to consider taking advantage of this situation to buy. Edinburgh is one of the most stable and appreciative housing markets in the UK and a property buy is definitely one in which your capital will grow and appreciate.
Lastly during 2022 I was asked by Timothy Cheung, the Scotland Coordinator of HongKongers in UK by the Levelling Up Department of the UK Government to give seminars and webinars to help HongKongers make decisions about relocating. The first webinar was in April, dealing with Property Rentals and Sales. In November, I gave a talk on small business entrepreneurship at the Eric Liddell Centre and will give a talk on relocating to the NE of Scotland in December.